一、主題：前向指導與可信貨币政策

二、主講人：董兵兵，bevictor伟德官网講師。2015年畢業于美國弗吉尼亞大學，獲經濟學博士。本科畢業于bevictor伟德官网，2008年獲得北京大學經濟學碩士學位。主要專業方向為宏觀經濟學、金融學，尤其在資産定價和貨币政策問題中有深入的研究。其研究成果在多個國際會議中宣講，包括非線性動态和計量經濟學會議、英國皇家經濟學學會年會、美國東部經濟學聯會年會等。

三、時間：2015年11月11日（周三），12:30-13:30

四、地點：bevictor伟德官网主樓913會議室

五、主持人：黃志剛，bevictor伟德官网副教授、院長助理

摘要：The effectiveness of forward guidance depends crucially on the credibility of the central bank. Instead of assuming full commitment or full discretion of the central bank, this paper sheds light on the best credible forward guidance policy a central bank can offer by solving for the whole set of sustainable sequential equilibria (SSE) in a standard New Keynesian model with the occasionally binding constraint of a nominal interest rate of zero. The inflation bias resulting from eliminating price distortion under the best SSE is much smaller than the bias under full discretion. In the presence of the zero lower bound (ZLB), while the full commitment solution implies that forward guidance has a longer duration of the nominal rate at zero bound followed by a quick revert-to-normal path, the best SSE features low but non-zero rates, and even a prolonged period of higher inflation after the recession ends. To make forward guidance credible and as simulative as possible, the adjustment of policy rates, and in particular, the rise of policy rates, should be smooth and gradual. In other words, policy normalization does not mean non-accommodation. Ramsey equilibria are not generally implementable.