一、主題：On the Bias in Estimates of Fiscal Policy Behavior

二、主講人：李冰，清華大學經濟管理學院經濟系助理教授。獲得美國印第安納大學經濟學博士學位，加拿大英屬哥倫比亞大學經濟學碩士學位，南開大學經濟學學士學位。研究領域包括貨币經濟學、應用宏觀經濟學和中國經濟問題。曾在China Economic Review等期刊發表多篇學術論文。

三、時間：2017年11月8日（周三），16：00-17：00

四、地點：學院南路校區主教學樓910會議室

五、主持人：王雅琦，bevictor伟德官网講師

Abstract: Single-equation estimates of fiscal reaction functions, which relate primary surpluses to past debt-GDP ratios and control variables, are subject to potentially serious simultaneity bias that can produce misleading inferences about fiscal behavior. Biases arise from failure to model the general equilibrium relationships between government debt and surpluses, relationships that bring in the forward-looking nature of debt valuation and the role of monetary policy in that valuation. We propose a simultaneous equations approach in the SVAR framework to solve the problem.