我院王雅琦副教授與中國人民大學勞動人事學院周廣肅副教授合作撰寫的論文《住房價格、房屋購買與中國家庭杠杆率》發表在《金融研究》2019年第6期。
Mian et al.（2013）和陳斌開和楊汝岱（2017）等人刻畫了房價變動對居民消費儲蓄等微觀行為的影響。另一方面，從家庭金融資産配置角度看，資産證券化、次級住房抵押貸款等金融創新刺激了家庭負債的增長和家庭信貸的可獲得性（Casolaro et al.，2006），李鳳等（2016）基于中國家庭金融調查數據發現在2015年家庭住房資産占據家庭總資産比例高達70.1%。在此基礎上，本文重點研究了房價變動對于家庭杠杆率的影響，并進一步探索房價變動對于我國家庭杠杆率影響的主要特征和渠道，同時探讨對不同特征家庭的異質性影響，對現有文獻進行補充。
本文利用中國家庭追蹤調查（CFPS）2014和2016年數據衡量了家庭的杠杆率水平，定義為家庭為購買或建造、裝修住房而進行的借貸總額除以家庭當年的總收入。研究結果發現，房價對家庭杠杆率的提高有顯著的正向作用，房價增長1倍，家庭杠杆率會提高39.2%，家庭貸款數額将會增長288.1%，而此部分貸款的增加主要來源于銀行貸款而非私人借貸，由房價導緻的家庭借貸數額和杠杆的的上升約占購房家庭總體借貸數額和杠杆率上升的90%。
進一步地，本文探讨了房價推動家庭借貸比率上升的的影響機制。首先，本文發現住房價格上漲刺激了家庭首套剛需住房需求的實現，這表明房價上升會提高家庭未來的購房成本，促使那些沒有住房的家庭通過增加借貸來購買首套剛需住房，即“直接效應”。其次，我們發現房價上升刺激了家庭多套住房購買需求的實現，說明房價上升會增強家庭對于未來房價上漲的預期，投資住房的預期回報将會進一步提高，最終使得家庭通過借貸購買多套住房，即“投機效應”。住房價格的快速上漲還提高了家庭的借貸意願和風險偏好，而“抵押效應”則并不明顯。此外，分樣本的探讨發現，這一效應對于非農戶口家戶、有配偶和子女家戶的影響更為明顯。
Mian et al. (2013) and Chen andYang (2017) portrayed the impact of housing price changes on microeconomicbehaviors such as household consumption and savings. Asset securitization andsubprime mortgages have stimulated household debt growth and household creditavailability (Casolaro et al., 2006). Based on Chinese Household Finance Surveydata, Li et al (2016) found family housing assets account for as much as 70.1%of total household assets in 2015. On these studies, this paper focuses on theimpact of housing price changes on household leverage, further explores themain channels of housing price changes on China's household leverage, andexplores the heterogeneity impact on households with different characteristics.
Based on household level housingand debt information drawn from the Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)for 2014 and 2016, we show that the appreciation in house prices indeedcontribute to the increase in household leverage. Quantitatively, we find thata 100% increase in the price of a house leads to 288. 1% and 39. 2% increasesin household debt and leverage, respectively. By further splitting our sampleinto several subsamples, we also find that the house price movements haveheterogeneous effects on household leverage. Specifically, we find that urbanhukou households with spouses and children have a greater increase in householdleverage than rural hukou households without spouses and children. Moreover, wefind that some of the data patterns are at odds with or cannot be well explainedby the “collateral channel”. Therefore, we propose two additional channels, the“financing channel” and the “speculation channel”, and confirm that these channelshave a strong influence on our sample. Furthermore, we find that most householdsfinance their housing purchases by bank loans instead of private lending.
