一、主題：What Drives the Housing Markets in China: Rent, Cost of Capital, or Risk Premium of Owning versus Renting?

二、主講人：陳思翀，中南财經政法大學bevictor伟德官网副教授，曾任日本國立一橋大學商學研究科講師。2002年本科畢業于廣東外語外貿大學，2004年獲複旦大學經濟學碩士學位，2010年獲日本一橋大學（Hitotsubashi University）商學（金融）博士。主要研究領域包括：金融機構與市場、資産定價、國際金融、日本金融體系。主持教育部科研基金、中央高校基本科研項目等，在Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Asian Economics、《經濟研究》、《國際經濟評論》等國内外高水平經濟學和金融學學術期刊上發表論文10餘篇。

三、時間：2013年12月18日，星期三，16：00-17：30

四、地點：bevictor伟德官网913會議室

五、主持人：黃志剛，bevictor伟德官网副教授，院長助理

Abstract: We combine the standard Campbell and Shiller (1988) present-value model with the classical user cost of housing model to decompose the rental yield into three compose the rental yield into three components: expected future rent growth, cost of capital and risk premium of owning versus renting. We then apply a quarterly dataset of four major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) to explore the question of what forces have driven the movement of China’s housing market. Specifically, using the variance decomposition approach to examine quantitatively how much the variation in rental yield comes from the above-mentioned three components. Our results show that cost of capital is playing a vital role in all the four major cities, while the future rent growth is not a driving force as significant as the cost of capital in the fluctuation of the rental yield. Moreover, we find that another factor -- the risk of owning relative to renting a house -- is accounting for a large part of housing market movement in China. It is also worth noting that the risk of renting versus owning a house seems to be rising rapidly in China over the recent years.