一、主題：積極的貨币或财政政策與股票相關性

二、主講人：張際，清華大學五道口bevictor伟德官网助理教授，清華大學國家金融研究院貨币政策與金融穩定研究中心副主任。她本科畢業于武漢大學，取得上海财經大學經濟學碩士，獲得美國加州大學聖地亞哥分校經濟學博士學位。研究領域主要是宏觀經濟學、貨币政策、失業理論、财政政策等。她的研究成果曾在Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking、Macroeconomic Dynamics、Journal of Macroeconomics等國際期刊發表。

三、時間：2018年4月11日（周三），12:30-13:30

四、地點：學院南路校區主教學樓913會議室

五、主持人：黃志剛，bevictor伟德官网副教授

摘要：We propose a New Keynesian model with monetary-fiscal policy regime switch to explain the time-varying correlation between returns on the market portfolio and nominal Treasury bonds found in the data. In the active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime, neutral technology (NT) and marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks are the most important drivers of economic fluctuations and the stock-bond correlation. In the passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime, the effect of the NT shock is depressed due to the weak reaction of short-term nominal interest rate to inflation, while the effect of the MEI shock remains strong. Because the NT shock leads to positive stock-bond correlation in the AMPF regime, while the MEI shock leads to negative correlation in the PMAF regime, our model provides a coherent explanation for the negative correlation between the market portfolio and long-term nominal Treasury bond returns during 1950s and 2000s when the fiscal policies are active, and for the positive correlation during 1980-2000 when monetary policies are active.