Journal of Corporate Finance · Volume 43, April 2017, Pages 175–192

過度自信與投資：一個實驗方法

作者：Elena Pikulina (University of British Columbia), Luc Renneboog (Tilburg University), Philippe N. Tobler (University of Zürich)

摘要：過度自信和投資供給之間的正相關關系在理論上是合理的，并且文獻中也經常應用此假設，但是該假設尚未被徹底驗證。我們測試并驗證了一個人對自身金融知識過度自信的程度和投資選擇之間的正相關關系。更準确地說，強烈的過度自信導緻過度投資，不自信導緻投資不足，而适當的過度自信導緻準确的投資。我們的實驗結果是基于不同的主體，包括金融專業人士和學生，并且基于計算機、報紙和網絡等不同媒體。一個人對其金融知識過度估計的程度與其實際知識以及同輩知識水平相關，後者能更好地解釋投資決策。當考慮個人風險厭惡程度、投資項目的風險程度以及激勵結構的變化時，過度自信和投資之間的關系都是穩健的。

Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach

Elena Pikulina (University of British Columbia), Luc Renneboog (Tilburg University), Philippe N. Tobler (University of Zürich)

ABSTRACT

A positive relation between overconfidence and investment provision has been theoretically justified and practically assumed in the literature, but has not been thoroughly investigated. We test and confirm this positive relation between direct measures of overconfidence in one's financial knowledge and choice of investment. More precisely, strong overconfidence results in excess investment, underconfidence induces underinvestment, whereas moderate overconfidence leads to accurate investments. Our experimental results are based on different subject pools, financial professionals and students, and different media: computer-, paper-, and web-based. The degree of one's overestimation of one's individual financial knowledge relative to one's actual knowledge as well as relative to the knowledge of peers explains investment decisions better than one's actual knowledge. The relation between overconfidence and investment is robust to the degree of individual risk aversion, the riskiness of the investment projects, and to the changes in incentives structure.

原文鍊接：

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119917300032

翻譯：陳然