Contemporary Accounting Research, Volume 33, Issue 4，Pages 1331–1749，2016

CEO過度自信和股票價格暴跌風險

作者：JB Kim (University of Waterloo), Z Wang (City University of Hong Kong), L Zhang (City University of Hong Kong)

摘要：本研究探讨首席執行官（CEO）過度自信與未來股票價格崩潰風險之間的關聯性。過度自信的管理者通常高估其投資項目的回報率，并将淨現值（NPV）為負的項目錯看為價值創造。他們也常常忽略或為私下觀察到的負面反饋辯解。結果造成負淨現值的項目被保留過久，糟糕的業績不斷積累，從而導緻股票價格崩潰。通過1993–2010年間的大量企業樣本，我們發現擁有過度自信CEO的公司比擁有非過度自信CEO的公司股票價格崩潰的風險更高。當CEO在高管團隊中更具支配權或者投資者之間意見分歧更大時，管理上的過度自信對崩盤風險的影響更加顯著。最後，研究還表明：對于會計政策較為保守的公司來說，CEO過度自信對崩盤風險的作用較為不顯著。

關鍵詞：過度自信；樂觀；暴跌風險；保守主義

CEO Overconfidence and Stock Price Crash Risk

JB Kim (University of Waterloo), Z Wang (City University of Hong Kong), L Zhang (City University of Hong Kong)

ABSTRACT

This study examines the association between chief executive officer (CEO) overconfidence and future stock price crash risk. Overconfident managers overestimate the returns to their investment projects and misperceive negative net present value (NPV) projects as value creating. They also tend to ignore or explain away privately observed negative feedback. As a result, negative NPV projects are kept for too long and their bad performance accumulates, which can lead to stock price crashes. Using a large sample of firms for the period 1993–2010, we find that firms with overconfident CEOs have higher stock price crash risk than firms with non-overconfident CEOs. The impact of managerial overconfidence on crash risk is more pronounced when the CEO is more dominant in the top management team and when there are greater differences of opinion among investors. Finally, it appears that the effect of CEO overconfidence on crash risk is less pronounced for firms with more conservative accounting policies.

Keywords: Overconfidence, optimism, crash risk, conservatism

原文鍊接：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1911-3846.12217/full#care12217-note-0001

翻譯：黃濤