Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 118, Issue 2, November 2015, Pages 431-449, ISSN 0304-405X ，NOVEMBER 2015

葡萄酒的價格

作者：Elroy Dimson, Peter L. Rousseau, Christophe Spaenjers

摘要：我們使用了波爾多一級酒莊的曆史價格數據，考察了窖藏年份對葡萄酒價格的影響和投資高質量葡萄酒所帶來的長期收益率。與例證模型一緻，能帶來最高經濟回報的葡萄酒為那些尚未成熟的高質量葡萄酒。另外，著名葡萄酒chateaus還為其所有者提供了持續增長的非經濟利益（情懷回報）。我們在使用1900-2012年的數據進行回歸後，估計到投資葡萄酒的經濟回報率（除去窖藏成本後）為4.1%。該值超過了債券、藝術品和郵票的回報率。此外，葡萄酒的回報率與股票的回報率正相關。最後，我們發現了樣本内回報率可預測的證據。

關鍵詞：葡萄酒價格，另類投資，價格指數，情懷回報，泡沫

The price of wine

Elroy Dimson, Peter L. Rousseau, Christophe Spaenjers

ABSTRACT

Using historical price records for Bordeaux Premiers Crus, we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long-term investment performance of fine wine. In line with the predictions of an illustrative model, young maturing wines from high-quality vintages provide the highest financial returns. Past maturity, famous chateaus deliver growing non-pecuniary benefits to their owners. Using an arithmetic repeat-sales regression over 1900–2012, we estimate a real financial return to wine investment (net of storage costs) of 4.1%, which exceeds bonds, art, and stamps. Returns to wine and equities are positively correlated. Finally, we find evidence of in-sample return predictability.

Keywords: Wine prices; Alternative investments; Price indexes; Psychic return; Bubbles

原文鍊接：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X15001440

翻譯：吳雨玲