一、主題：Are recoveries all the same?

二、主講人：黃宇凡，首都經濟貿易大學國際經濟管理學院助理教授。2004年獲得國立政治大學（台灣）的經濟學學士學位，2006年獲得台灣大學的經濟學碩士學位，并于2013年獲得華盛頓大學的經濟學博士學位。黃宇凡博士的研究領域包括實證宏觀經濟學、貝葉斯計量經濟學、非線性時間序列、貨币經濟學。

三、時間：2015年10月28日（周三），12:30-13:30

四、地點：bevictor伟德官网主樓913會議室

五、主持人：金谷，bevictor伟德官网講師

Abstract: Departing from the existing literature, we allow the shape of recovery to be different following each recession. We are motivated by the observation that post-recession growth paths seem to vary a great deal across different recessions. Using U.S. data, we find significant evidence for U-shaped recovery. However, the probability of a U-shaped exhibits large variations across recessions. Specifically, the recent three recoveries are very likely to be L-shaped. We also compute Beveridge-Nelson trends and cycles during each recession. We find that early recessions were largely due to drops in cyclical activity, but that recent recessions are associated almost entirely with losses in the permanent component of GDP.