一、主題：Assessing China’s Fiscal Risks: A Case Study of the Local Government Financial Vehicles

二、主講人：陶坤玉，bevictor伟德官网講師。2013年畢業于北京大學國家發展研究院，獲經濟學博士學位，博士期間赴美國紐約哥倫比亞大學商學院訪問一年。研究興趣包括國際金融、經濟發展等，博士論文為“剩餘勞動力信貸約束對我國經濟内外失衡的影響”。參與國家級重大課題3項，其研究成果發表于Asian Economic papers、《世界經濟》《南開經濟研究》等。

三、時間：2014年5月28日（周三），12：30-13：30

四、地點：bevictor伟德官网主樓913會議室

五、主持人：黃志剛，bevictor伟德官网副教授，院長助理

Abstract： China’s rapid credit expansion after the recent global financial crisis brought local government financial vehicles (LGFVs) into the spotlight. the rapid expansion of LGFVs triggered concerns regarding local government indebtedness, banks’ asset quality and more broadly, medium term financial stability and sovereign risk in China. This paper constructs a unique firm level dataset to evaluate China’s local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFVs which are more concentrated in coast area, and a deterioration of debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. we then conduct a principle component analysis (PCA) along with multi-variant discriminant analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFVs based on conventional financial variables as well as local government fiscal status. the 6 components covers the information on profitability, leverage, debt repaying ability, operating efficiency and local government fiscal status, with MDA, we discriminate the less healthy LGFVs from healthy LGFVs, and the average accuracy of our model is 85%. The future prediction reveals that the local government debt risks in middle-western provinces are more severe, the LGFVs at municipal level besides county level are with higher risk. So although it is very unlikely that there will be a debt crisis in local China, the high risk in LGFVs should be noticed and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.