一、主題：Blue States and Red States: Business Cycle Divergence and Risk Sharing

二、主講人：David Parsley，美國範德堡大學（Vanderbilt University）經濟和金融學教授。他在加州大學伯克利分校獲經濟學博士學位，在肯塔基大學獲商業和經濟學學士學位。Parsley教授研究方向為國際金融、全球經濟一體化、彙率、貨币政策等，研究成果發表于Quarterly Journal of Economics、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Financial Economics、The Economic Journal等期刊雜志。

三、時間：2018年10月18日（周四），14：00-15：30

四、地點：學院南路校區主樓913會議室

五、主持人：黃志剛，bevictor伟德官网副教授，院長助理

摘要: We examine business cycle divergence and consumption risk sharing within the United States over the last two decades. While doing so, we also separately restrict the sample to only those states whose populations have consistently voted either Republican (red) or Democrat (blue) in national elections. Examining GDP growth within the two color regions, we find that the business cycles of the two regions have diverged since the start of this century, and they behave as if they are internationally distinct: measured by GDP, their business cycles are as asynchronous as some international country pairs. However, when we examine consumption risk sharing, we find that the Red and Blue regions are well integrated with each other. Their asynchronous business cycles enable the two regions to share consumption risk through capital market integration, fiscal federalism, credit markets, and interstate migration. Little or no state GDP differences are (likely to be) ameliorated by changes in relative prices. Looking at all of the United States, and we find that the red/blue divide is indicative of the country as a whole: while GDP is asynchronous, consumption risk is shared throughout the country as a whole (probably) occurs through the same channels.