一、主題：Flight to Housing

二、主講人：許志偉，上海交通大學安泰經濟與管理學院副教授。2013年獲香港科技大學經濟學博士學位。主要從事宏觀金融、經濟周期和中國經濟等領域研究。論文發表于Economic Journal、Journal of Economic and Dynamics Control、Quantitative Economics、Review of Economic Dynamics、《經濟研究》、《管理世界》、《經濟學季刊》等中英文期刊。其國際資本流動的研究獲得2016浦山世界經濟學青年論文獎。

三、時間：2018年11月2日（周五），16：00-17：30

四、地點：學院南路校區主樓913會議室

五、主持人：黃志剛，bevictor伟德官网副教授

Abstract: The 2007 global financial crisis has generated episodes of fight to liquidity and quality with lasting high uncertainty, especially in the age of the shortage of safe assets. This is particularly true for developing economies like China, in which financial market is underdeveloped and the financial account is tightly regulated. Both the household-level survey and housing transaction data suggest that a higher economic uncertainty boosts Chinese house prices, especially those with relatively good quality. Motivated by the empirical facts, we embed housings as safe assets into a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets. With the calibration on the Chinese economy, we show that household's holding housings to fight against the increasing uncertainty delivers a housing boom, crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector, and resulting in a recession. We further incorporate the major policy intervention in Chinese housing market, i.e., the house-purchase limit policy, into our baseline model. Policy intervention does effectively curb the house prices and dampen the crowding out effect, but at the cost of restricting households' access to housings as the store of value, and thus lowers welfare by magnifying consumption dispersion. Consequently, the policy intervention faces a trade-o_ between macro-level stability and micro-level volatility.